National Libertarianism and The New American Social Contract
Nobody Hates Change More Than People Who Make It Happen
Generational theory and Fourth Turning’s may lack “falsifiability” in the scientific sense, but they are useful as descriptors in terms of social movements throughout history - both in the United States and elsewhere. As a matter of behavioral differentiation between generations, social attitudes evolve and differ over time - there should be no clearer example of this than the Baby Boomers. What is the descriptive framework that functions today, and where should we expect it to guide both markets and geopolitical events for the foreseeable future? This article attempts to answer some of those questions.
Each system has within it the seeds of its own destruction. This was true of the British Empire, the Chinese Dynastic System, Ancient Rome, Greece and everything in between. In modern history, the United States is the most distinct nation among equals - both from its peers and in broader historical context. It is not unprecedented for a more liberal republican system to express economic and military advantages - particularly when it comes to general morale - throughout history, however the degree to which American cultural influence and political institutional structure has spread globally is unprecedented, and for a nation that has never accounted for more than 6% of the world’s population, it is far more diverse, divided and discordant in every generation than what we would expect a global center of power to be.
Hence what we see happening today: the emergence of a sense of “National Libertarianism” which will drive the social consensus of the United States for the next 60-80 years, not because freedom is any underlying principle of existence in the United States - indeed there are many examples of freedom being egregiously repressed in US history - but instead that the expansion of freedom is the only means to alleviate the generational accumulation of social tension and discord that marks the country’s deepest and most fraught social conflicts. Indeed, the expansion of freedom - both in the sense of positive and negative liberties - is the only guarantor of stability in the United States, because it is essentially the only practice which buys an extended term of peace and quiet for the elites to do as they wish.
So, what should we expect National Libertarianism to look like, and how does it follow previous cultural shifts in American History?
An emphasis on borders and national sovereignty, clear cultural and religious boundaries, and resistance to globalism and suspicion of sovereignty being devolved to international institutions or foreign corporate entities
Emphasis on deregulation, innovation, and the economic rights of the individual over that of the collective
Amidst a shrinking of the state and the applicability of the legal system, an emphasis on the rule of law, rule-following, and obedience to civic authority (police, first responders, etc)
Emphasis on a basic standard of living and guarantees that support it, which limits the disruptiveness of smaller social and economic transitions (ones that essentially now happen with every economic recession)
The expansion of economic benefits in a manner that accentuates the liberty with which individuals act in daily life - whether it is the pursuit of jobs, entrepreneurship, or charitable social causes, to the extent where this particular attitude contradicts the principles of small or limited government
Indeed, there is no foreseeable future version of the United States in which small government predominates. The most meagre attempts of the Trump administration, and even back to Reagan, to shrink the role and relevance of government in everyday life, had either none or the opposite effect. The only hope for the United States government is to deliver more services in a more efficient manner that is ultimately more deflationary as a matter of both cost-of-living and debt-accumulation.
What will be the characteristics of the American federal system in response to this? A few may be more prominent:
Limited immigration until wages begin to rise substantially, driving increased capital accumulation in the lower tier of the middle class, until employment limitations become so severe that immigration becomes acceptable again (this may be a 30 or 40-year process, similar to the intervening period between the 1920s quota system and the 1965 Hart-Cellar Act).
The substitution of social security and Medicare with the provision of basic shelter, sustenance and care - not simply because the direct disbursement system is both inflationary and too expensive to maintain - but because the standard of care which most Americans receive from medical institutions is declining, and life expectancy has stalled or otherwise followed that trend.
Austerity in the Defense Department, not simply because its historical largesse as an employment program has made it unsustainable, but also because that same largesse has actually made it ineffective as a deterrent mechanism, producing expensive and complex weapons systems that are difficult to use effectively in decentralized battlefield scenarios.
The introduction of consistent “helicopter money”, once understood as “stimmies” in the pandemic or “Universal Basic Income” by the Andrew Yang crowd, will exist to subsidize the demand function in the US economy and maintain consumption status-quo - while alleviating economic anxiety - as technological deflation reduces real incomes and employment in the medium to long term.
The substitution of both public and private insurance benefit schemes with a universal, profit-targeted, national insurance scheme likely similar to the Dutch model - only because single-payer and alternative systems are so rigid as to be perceived as inherently un-American.
The nationalization of educational bureaucracy or the otherwise outright decimation of the for-profit college system in favor of quotas, restrictions, increased regulations which focus on the translation of educational attainment to income.
The introduction of new social policies, primarily targeting housing, urban development, universal childcare and expanded social and community policing through block-grant methodologies that limit the direct involvement of the federal government, but otherwise increase the size of state and local government and its orientation towards “maintaining social cohesion”.
A lot of the above may seem like the “Bernie Sanders agenda”, and in truth much of that agenda is achievable, as Max Weber observed that corruption, graft and machine politics was only sustainable in an America that saw abundant surplus. Ultimately, US Bureaucracy will have to reorganize around the efficient provision of services than the imposition of rules and regulations - which is true for many local and state governments - with more extensive “snitching” and whistleblower mechanisms to limit Waste, Fraud and Abuse. If there’s any element of this scenario which seems impossible, it’s because it is, but the alternative is simple: no government, no country, pack up and go back to Europe (or wherever else).
This sort of left-consensus libertarianism is not without its forerunners in the history of the United States, and ultimately the “Fourth Turning” Saeculum theory (80 year cycles) can be homogenously applied to the expansion of liberty throughout the population, namely:
1780s: Revolutionary period, “no taxation without representation”, “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness” as the purpose of government (in lieu of service to the sovereign)
1860s: Transition from slavery to free-labor, universalization of wage-labor system which enabled industrial expansion at the cost of a decimated South
1940s: culmination of New Deal into “Four Freedoms”, substituted effect of “Arsenal of Democracy”, US global preeminence enabling increased government largesse, hence extending greater guarantees to citizens (Housing, Social Security, Medicare, GI Bill)
In each age, this social contract serves effectively as a new means to capture the labor force, and as was well understood by the Roosevelt Administration, to stave off revolution and disintegration. Today is no different, except that the labor force is more mobile, more upset, and more aware of its exclusion from the profit-generating mechanisms of the country at large. Even as the US Empire retrenches, as a supposed China Gold Revaluation is incoming, as debt and inflation wreak havoc on the middle class, US structural forces can be reined in with sufficient monetization of debt, and sufficient efficiency in the delivery of services. If the American Social Contract shifts in that manner, even if it is no longer the singular world-power, both its cultural influence will continue, and it can be a successful source of innovation for generations to come. Much the same way China came to Capitalism, the United States must understand that “you judge a cat by whether it catches mice”.